Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
