A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
